Dark Prince
09-14-2001, 02:56 PM
This is taken from Stratfor. I thought people here would find it interesting considering recent events and discussions.
The main threat to the United States will come from technology-savvy, but not technology-dependant, terrorist organizations. Intelligence from American, Israeli, Russian and Indian sources suggests the following terror techniques, associated with likely radical Islamic perpetrators, may be used.
First, the terrorists will attempt to attack the most vulnerable civilian targets, where the deadliest results could be reached with minimal effort. The targets will also be symbolic, with the goal to produce a demoralizing effect on America.
The terrorists know they cannot seriously undermine U.S. military capabilities on American territory. Heavily guarded facilities will thus be avoided at an initial stage. When U.S. authorities switch their main attention to protecting civilian targets, the terrorists will strike at strategic objects, such as nuclear power stations, government facilities and military bases, as well as chemical plants and refineries.
High-tech attacks on computer and satellite networks cannot be excluded. The latter will not be the goal but rather means to make other targets more vulnerable. To add unpredictability, the same types of targets would not be hit in a row. For example, more aircraft hijackings will not be attempted in the short-term.
Second, explosives and arms will be rarely used, except in car bombings. This will decrease chances to catch the terrorists red handed. The attack this week showed it is possible that three determined men with razor blades and plastic knives can overcome possible resistance from aircraft crew and passengers. U.S. assets -- such as tankers, ships, helicopters, fuel and chemical trucks, aircraft and speed boats -- would be used as weapons instead of bombs or guns.
Third, a large flow of terrorists trying to cross the U.S. border is not expected any time soon, as many already came to the country several years ago. For instance, some of the suspects in this week's attacks received pilot training in the United States for 10 or 18 months before the assault, some American and Russian intelligence experts say.
Hidden terrorist cells would wait for the right time to be activated. Diplomatic cover will be widely used, with the possible collaboration of some foreign diplomats from countries friendly to America. Some terrorist organizations on American soil may also have counterintelligence capability, and in general will work almost the same way as U.S. intelligence services do.
Fourth, bacteriological and chemical attacks are unlikely soon. However, when America hits back at the home countries of suspected terrorists, the likelihood of such attacks will be increased. Rather than taking suitcases with nuclear devices in America, terrorists will try to contaminate large areas with radiation by various means not associated with nuclear explosion. America is in for an exhaustive and unpredictable war with terrorists on its own soil.
The main threat to the United States will come from technology-savvy, but not technology-dependant, terrorist organizations. Intelligence from American, Israeli, Russian and Indian sources suggests the following terror techniques, associated with likely radical Islamic perpetrators, may be used.
First, the terrorists will attempt to attack the most vulnerable civilian targets, where the deadliest results could be reached with minimal effort. The targets will also be symbolic, with the goal to produce a demoralizing effect on America.
The terrorists know they cannot seriously undermine U.S. military capabilities on American territory. Heavily guarded facilities will thus be avoided at an initial stage. When U.S. authorities switch their main attention to protecting civilian targets, the terrorists will strike at strategic objects, such as nuclear power stations, government facilities and military bases, as well as chemical plants and refineries.
High-tech attacks on computer and satellite networks cannot be excluded. The latter will not be the goal but rather means to make other targets more vulnerable. To add unpredictability, the same types of targets would not be hit in a row. For example, more aircraft hijackings will not be attempted in the short-term.
Second, explosives and arms will be rarely used, except in car bombings. This will decrease chances to catch the terrorists red handed. The attack this week showed it is possible that three determined men with razor blades and plastic knives can overcome possible resistance from aircraft crew and passengers. U.S. assets -- such as tankers, ships, helicopters, fuel and chemical trucks, aircraft and speed boats -- would be used as weapons instead of bombs or guns.
Third, a large flow of terrorists trying to cross the U.S. border is not expected any time soon, as many already came to the country several years ago. For instance, some of the suspects in this week's attacks received pilot training in the United States for 10 or 18 months before the assault, some American and Russian intelligence experts say.
Hidden terrorist cells would wait for the right time to be activated. Diplomatic cover will be widely used, with the possible collaboration of some foreign diplomats from countries friendly to America. Some terrorist organizations on American soil may also have counterintelligence capability, and in general will work almost the same way as U.S. intelligence services do.
Fourth, bacteriological and chemical attacks are unlikely soon. However, when America hits back at the home countries of suspected terrorists, the likelihood of such attacks will be increased. Rather than taking suitcases with nuclear devices in America, terrorists will try to contaminate large areas with radiation by various means not associated with nuclear explosion. America is in for an exhaustive and unpredictable war with terrorists on its own soil.